Too Close to Call
Governor Gretchen Whitmer is seeking reelection in a tight race against Republican candidate Tudor Dixon.
The Michigan gubernatorial race tightens
By Paul Natinsky
Michigan’s gubernatorial race is getting tighter as the candidates head into the final turn and bread-and-butter issues like the economy and jobs close the gap with abortion and women’s rights as voters’ top concerns.
Pollster Ed Sarpolus of Target Insyght says the race is tightening up. Incumbent Gretchen Whitmer’s lead was in double figures, but Sarpolus says some polls now have it as small as 3 percent. Lansing-based MIRS news service recently reported a 2 percent spread.
Sarpolus thinks the abortion issue peaked too early for Democrats. He said Democrats have forgotten that people care about jobs, the economy and inflation, allowing Republicans to make up ground focusing on these core issues.
Sarpolus added that Whitmer’s campaign is focusing on a broad spectrum of issues, but the main push for Democrats continues to be support for Proposal 3, a measure that restores a broad legalization of abortion services.
With Democratic and Republican voters deeply entrenched in their positions and the Democratic edge eroding, Sarpolus thinks the election will come down to independent voters and kitchen table issues.
Republican challenger Tudor Dixon is working to link Whitmer with President Joe Biden and his poor polling numbers amid economic woes and high inflation.
“Joe Biden’s inflation has driven up the cost of everything and is threatening to put us into a recession,” said Dixon. “Gretchen Whitmer has supported Biden’s policies every step of the way. In fact, she has said she is cut from the same cloth as Biden. She, too, should be held accountable for the economic disaster that is continuing to unfold.”
She goes a step further, targeting Whitmer directly. “Gretchen Whitmer’s lockdown orders cost Michigan one-third of our businesses, wasted billions on unemployment, and suppressed our recovery.”
Whitmer’s defense, as an incumbent, is to point to highlights of her first-term accomplishments.
“I worked across the aisle to sign a landmark economic incentives package that gave Michigan the tools we need to stay competitive in attracting new business,” said Whitmer. “That bipartisan work with the partnership of the Legislature led to the $7 billion investment from GM, the largest in company history; a $2 billion investment from Ford; and a nearly $2 billion investment from LG.”
She goes on to say she’s championed Michigan’s role in the semiconductor industry by securing major investments of $300 million from SK Siltron and $375 million from Hemlock Semiconductor Operations, creating 320 strong jobs between them.
Whitmer aims to “ensure the future of semiconductors is made in Michigan, strengthen high-tech manufacturing, and reduce shortages and delays of critical products.” She credited bipartisan leadership, saying that thanks to them, the future of auto manufacturing will be made in Michigan, by Michigan workers.
“We’ve also supported more than 2,600 small businesses with over $105 million to help provide relief and continue economic growth through the bipartisan Growing MI Business Grant program,” Whitmer adds. “Small businesses are the backbone of Michigan’s economy, and I have championed their growth during my time as governor.” The administration is proud that Michigan saw record small business growth in 2021 – the fastest growth rate in over 20 years. Michigan ranks as a top ten state for small business revenue growth over the last two years and was a top ten state for new business creation in 2021.
“Growing Michigan’s economy starts with good education and a strong workforce,” concludes Whitmer. “We put 170,000 Michiganders and counting on a path to tuition-free skills training and higher education. We secured funding to train almost 30,000 workers at over 850 local businesses.”
Dixon has economic plans of her own if she wins Michigan’s top executive post.
“We need to cut regulations by 40% and change the state bureaucracy to be friendly to businesses not work against them,” says Dixon. “As a former small business owner, I understand what business owners are dealing with and will ensure a more business-friendly environment. Gretchen Whitmer weaponized the bureaucracy against business owners, hurting them more as sales struggled.”
In addition to choosing the state’s next chief executive, Michigan’s gubernatorial election will have repercussions down the ballot for statewide posts and state legislative offices.
Historically, a strong showing in the previous election for governor gives that party’s candidates a lift further down the ballot. This being the first election since the state underwent redistricting by a committee largely controlled by citizens rather than legislators in the majority has complicated the picture, but Sarpolus thinks Whitmer’s performance at the top of the ticket and the redrawn districts give the governor a strong chance to influence the performance of candidates across the state.
Republicans, says Sarpolus, focus their spending on state legislative races and other down ballot contests more than Democrats do, making those contests closely fought battlegrounds. He adds that the money used to back Republican candidates statewide is substantial and provides a strong counterweight to Whitmer’s campaign war chest.
Which campaign strategy and which positions on the issues will prevail in a deeply divided state remain to be seen. The one thing that is clear is that the result is going to come down to the wire.