Democrats Dominate, Win Delicate Legislative Majorities
John James proved victorious in Michigan’s 10th district.
By Paul Natinsky
Michigan Democrats stole the show in the 2022 midterm elections, but success at the ballot box might not signal continuing Democratic dominance in future elections.
A strong incumbent at the top of the ticket, Gretchen Whitmer, plus a provocative ballot proposal and heavy funding advantage played their parts in Democrats winning the state House, Senate, and a majority in Michigan’s congressional delegation.
Perfect Storm
It was the perfect storm for Democrats. The redrawing of legislative districts throughout the state set the stage for electoral success by making an increased number of districts competitive. “Redistricting gave (Democrats) the opportunity, not the guarantee,” said pollster Ed Sarpolus of Target Insyghts. He said Proposal 3 (defining when abortion is legal in the absence of Roe v. Wade), Whitmer at the top of the ticket, and a large money advantage helped Democrats over the top.
But the advantage might not last. Whitmer is term-limited and might be a presidential candidate in 2024. And there likely won’t be a galvanizing social issue on the ballot next time around. When those factors are removed, said Sarpolus, much of the Democratic advantage dries up. Prior to the election, Sarpolus ran numbers based on the demographics in the redrawn districts going back 20 years—he found Democrats rarely winning legislative majorities.
Regardless of how Democrats achieved them, they now find themselves wielding more gavels than they have since the 1980s. In the House, Democrats earned a razor-thin 56-54 edge. In the Senate, Dems took a slim 20-18 majority, their first since 1983.
Top issues for Democrats according to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer include competing for additional automotive and clean energy projects, repealing the retirement tax, protecting the Great Lakes, and improving public education.
“We will make Michigan a place where you can envision your future state where anyone — no matter who they are, where they come from, how much money they have in their pocket, who they love or how they identify — can thrive right here,” she said.
Legislative Democrats were quick to suggest a laundry list of causes.
Both Sen. Winnie Brinks, D-Grand Rapids, and Rep. Julie Brixie, D-Okemos, said they want to codify the constitutional amendments approved by voters and repeal a 1931 law on the books that criminalizes abortion. The law was set to take effect this summer when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, but implementation of it has been blocked by a court order, according to a report by Bridge Michigan.
Sen. Dayna Polehanki, D-Livonia, listed possible policy priorities on social media, suggesting repeals of several Republican measures, including Right to Work laws that prohibit union membership as a condition of employment, laws mandating third graders repeat the grade if they are more than one grade level behind and restrictions on reproductive rights, according to Bridge.
Despite their electoral success, small majorities in both chambers will force Democrats to work with Republicans to move legislation to the governor’s desk, according to several analyses. The narrow advantages could also discourage Dems from pursuing a far-left agenda and keep the agenda skewed toward the center. Tight margins also might keep some of the more partisan and controversial proposals off the agenda.
Congress, Too
Democrats also came out on top in the state’s congressional delegation, emerging with seven of 13 seats. The count could have been higher, said Sarpolus. In the 10th District, Businessman John James barely edged out opponent Circuit Court Judge Carl Marlinga. Marlinga ran almost even with James, who enjoyed much greater name recognition from back-to-back U.S. Senate runs and a substantial funding advantage over Marlinga. Sarpolus said the Democratic Party decided to invest in other races and that had they targeted the 10th they certainly could have won it.
The Trump Brand
Emblematic of the current state of the Trump brand was the contest for Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District. That seat featured Democrat Hillary Scholten topping Trump-backed candidate John Gibbs 55%-42% in the seat formerly occupied by Rep. Peter Meijer. Meijer was ousted in the GOP primary after being one of a handful of congresspeople who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump.
Sarpolus said less than one-third of all voters in Michigan want Trump to run for reelection. He said the same number feel he could win if he did run.
Statewide Success
In addition to the Governor’s mansion, Democrats won key statewide races for Secretary of State (Jocelyn Benson), and Attorney General (Dana Nessel). The state Supreme Court remains a Democratic-backed majority and ballot proposals liberalizing voting regulations and increasing transparency in election processes also passed.
While all of this Democratic dominance does not guarantee future majorities, Sarpolus says in the short term it brings money and resources to races and candidates that would otherwise not be there. He says one of the reasons this is important is that significantly outspending an opponent allows the well-funded candidate to define the less supported one. Once that happens, the underfunded candidate is forced onto the defensive and has little opportunity to build a brand.
However the 2022 midterm results play out, it looks like deeply entrenched positions have loosened for the foreseeable future.